Viewing archive of Monday, 11 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS, A C1 AT 11/1735UT AND A C2 AT 11/1959UT. THE ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAVE EITHER DECAYED OR REMAINED UNCHANGED. ALL ARE SMALL AND RELATIVELY SIMPLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JAN to 14 JAN
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JAN 112
  Predicted   12 JAN-14 JAN  112/115/120
  90 Day Mean        11 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JAN to 14 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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