Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C5 AT 24/0054Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C6/SF AT 24/0127Z FROM REGION 8416 (N20E20). REGION 8421 (N27E64) PRODUCED A M1/SF AT 24/1145Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8422 (S23E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 DEC to 27 DEC
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 DEC 139
  Predicted   25 DEC-27 DEC  145/150/154
  90 Day Mean        24 DEC 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC  003/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 DEC to 27 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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