Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS A C5/SN EVENT FROM REGION 8409 (S27W38) AT 16/1909Z. REGION 8408 (S18W53) AND REGION 8409 PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED, 8414 (N21E49), AND IS CURRENTLY A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP WITH FOUR SPOTS VISIBLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD (16/0600 TO 16/0900Z) OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES DUE TO THE AFFECT OF A CORONAL HOLE PASSAGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE EFFECT OF A CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 DEC to 19 DEC
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 DEC 141
  Predicted    17 DEC-19 DEC  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        16 DEC 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 DEC to 19 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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