Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 December 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8408 (S18W40) AND REGION 8409 (S28W25) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8408 HAS SHOWN SOME SLOW DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS NOW A DAO BETA GROUP WITH ELEVEN SPOTS. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED, 8413 (N18E13), AND IS CURRENTLY A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP WITH TWO SPOTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8408 OR 8409.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 16 DEC to 18 DEC
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 DEC 142
  Predicted   16 DEC-18 DEC  140/135/132
  90 Day Mean        15 DEC 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 DEC  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 DEC  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 DEC-18 DEC  008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 DEC to 18 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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