Viewing archive of Monday, 14 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR AND MODERATE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED THIS PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8408 (S19W28). THIS REGION PRODUCED TWO C7 X-RAY EVENTS, A 1F OPTICAL FLARE, AND SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8408 HAS CONTINUED TO GROW IN SIZE, CURRENTLY WITH AN AREA OF 250 MILLIONTHS. THE MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION IS BETA-GAMMA, LOSING THE DELTA CONFIGURATION NOTED YESTERDAY. REGION 8409 (S28E01) IS A 22 SPOT ESI BETA-GAMMA GROUP THAT HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGIONS 8408 AND 8409. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT MID LATITUDE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 DEC 144
  Predicted   15 DEC-17 DEC  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        14 DEC 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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