Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. ALL REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE EITHER AN ALPHA OR BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED. FIRST, 8408 (S19E28), WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP. SECOND, REGION 8406 (S27E28) WAS DIVIDED WITH 8406 REMAINING TO THE WEST AS AN HSX ALPHA SPOT GROUP, AND NEW REGION 8409 (S29E43) AS A DSO BETA GROUP JUST BEHIND REGION 8406.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
Class M 20%20%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 DEC 134
  Predicted    11 DEC-13 DEC  132/128/122
  90 Day Mean        10 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  010/012-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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