Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST WAS A C5/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 09/1740Z FROM REGION 8405 (S16E20). THE FAST GROWTH IN REGION 8404 (S23W38), NOTED THE LAST TWO DAYS, APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AS A DAI BETA GROUP. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, LEADING TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 10 DEC to 12 DEC
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 DEC 154
  Predicted   10 DEC-12 DEC  151/148/146
  90 Day Mean        09 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC  008/008-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 DEC to 12 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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