Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO MINOR C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED, ONE UNCORRELATED, AND ONE FROM REGION 8393 (S16W97). THE
TWO MOST COMPLEX ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8395 (N19W49)
AND 8402 (N16E10), HAVE BOTH DECREASED IN COMPLEXITY SINCE
YESTERDAY. REGION 8395 HAS DECREASED IN AREA COVERAGE AND SPOT
COUNT, AND IS CURRENTLY A 3-SPOT 'HAX' ALPHA GROUP. REGION 8402 HAS
MAINTAINED ITS AREA COVERAGE, BUT ITS SPOT COUNT AND MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY HAVE BOTH DECREASED. REGION 8402 IS NOW A 10-SPOT 'EKO'
BETA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE INTERVAL OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT
ALL LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD 05/1200-1500Z. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 DEC 142 Predicted 06 DEC-08 DEC 138/136/134 90 Day Mean 05 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC 010/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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