Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF TWO MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS, ONE FROM REGION 8395 (N18W27) AND THE OTHER FROM REGION 8397 (N14E22). DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF FIVE ADDITIONAL ACTIVE REGIONS, THERE WAS NO OTHER ACTIVITY OF NOTE. REGIONS 8395 (21-SPOT 'FAI' BETA-GAMMA), 8397 (7-SPOT 'EAO' BETA), AND 8402 (N18E41, 8-SPOT 'EAO' BETA) REMAIN THE MOST COMPLEX.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY, AND MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE, FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8395, 8397, AND 8402. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 DEC 153
  Predicted   04 DEC-06 DEC  150/148/148
  90 Day Mean        03 DEC   131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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