Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8395 (N20W17) AND 8402 (N18E53). REGION 8395 CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. REGIONS 8393 (S16W45), 8398 (N18W28), 8399 (N26W04), AND 8400 (S18W21) HAVE ALSO DECAYED. OTHER REGIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8395, 8397, AND 8402. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS, THE CHANCE OF MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 03 DEC to 05 DEC
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 DEC 152
  Predicted   03 DEC-05 DEC  150/148/146
  90 Day Mean        02 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 DEC to 05 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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