Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8395 (N22E21) REMAINS
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IT IS A LONG F-TYPE
GROUP WITH SOME MIXED POLARITIES. SUNSPOT GROWTH LEADING THIS GROUP
AND TO THE NORTHEAST MAY BE BETTER IDENTIFIED AS SEPARATE SUNSPOT
REGIONS, ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS HAVE NOT YET BEEN NUMBERED. REGION
8395 CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE. NEW REGION 8397 (N15E68) IS ROTATING
ONTO THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8395 MAY BE CAPABLE OF ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 NOV 168 Predicted 30 NOV-02 DEC 170/172/174 90 Day Mean 29 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC 015/018-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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