Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8395 (N20E33) PRODUCED A X3/3N AT 28/0552Z. THIS EVENT HAD TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURST INCLUDING 3600 SFU'S AT 2695 MHZ. A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. OBSERVATORIES REPORTED SOME SPOT GROWTH PRIOR TO THE FLARE. REGION 8395 IS NOW A MODERATELY COMPLEX F-TYPE GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SHORTLY AFTER THE X3/3N, BUT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STABLE SINCE 28/1400Z. REGION 8393 (S18E12) DISPLAYED A BIT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8395 HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE FIELD OF NEAR FLARE INTENSITY PLAGE SINCE THE X-FLARE TODAY. FREQUENT SUBFLARES, FLUCTUATIONS, AND SURGES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8393 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH DAY 1. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE M1/2N FLARE EARLY ON THE 27TH MAY CAUSE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY 2 AND 3.
III. Event Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 NOV 165
  Predicted   29 NOV-01 DEC  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        28 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  005/010-015/018-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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