Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8395 (N17E56) PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD - A C4/1F AT 26/1039Z. THIS REGION'S LIMB PROXIMITY IS STILL PREVENTING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS; HOWEVER, IT APPEARS NOW AS A MODERATELY COMPLEX, BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION COVERING 420 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGIONS 8392 (S23E08) AND 8393 (S19E38) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND LOW C-CLASS BURSTS BUT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE OR COMPLEXITY. A 22 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED NEAR N63E53 EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8396 (N28W45) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A D-TYPE GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THOUGH REGION 8395 HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY MAJOR ACTIVITY, ITS SIZE AND COMPLEXITY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR M-CLASS FLARES. REGIONS 8392, 8393, AND NEW REGION 8396 ARE ALL CAPABLE OF C-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 NOV 156
  Predicted   27 NOV-29 NOV  160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        26 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV  015/015-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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