Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384 (S26W114) PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE FLARE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED X1 AT 24/0220Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AT 24/0217Z. THE TYPE II SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 400 KM/S. A 470 SFU TENFLARE WAS ALSO DETECTED DURING THE X1 EVENT. SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED, LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO DETECTED DURING THE PERIOD. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8394 (S16W49), AND REGION 8395 (N17E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARE PROBABLILITIES MAY INCREASE AS REGION 8393 (S18E62) AND REGION 8395 ROTATE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE LOCATION OF REGION 8395 CORRELATES WELL WITH OLD REGION 8375, WHICH PRODUCED A MAJOR FLARE AND A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING ITS LAST ROTATION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX WAS ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD THAT FOLLOWED THE X-CLASS FLARE EARLY TODAY, AND HAS NOW DECREASED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
Class M40%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 NOV 140
  Predicted   25 NOV-27 NOV  145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        24 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  010/012-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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