Viewing archive of Friday, 20 November 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8391 (S17E34) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE, A C2/SF AT 1524Z. THE REGION WAS GROWING SLOWLY AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8384 (S28W62) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE LOW LEVEL SUBFLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WAS AN INTERVAL OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 NOV to 23 NOV
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 NOV 122
  Predicted   21 NOV-23 NOV  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        20 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV  010/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 NOV to 23 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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