Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8384 (S16W66) WAS QUIET AND STABLE. REGION 8391 (S16E48) WAS
MORE CLEARLY VISIBLE TODAY AS A C-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP BUT WAS ALSO
VERY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 NOV 117 Predicted 20 NOV-22 NOV 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 19 NOV 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV 010/015-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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