Viewing archive of Friday, 13 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8385 (N20W58) PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 12/2354Z AND REGION 8383 (S16E14) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT
13/0312Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8386 (S20E57).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C AND M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 13/0300Z WHEN IT BECAME ACTIVE
TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND
BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE PROBABLE CAUSE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WAS THE PARTIAL HALO
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 NOV 135 Predicted 14 NOV-16 NOV 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 13 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV 040/055 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV 015/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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