Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. ONE OPTICALLY CORRELATED M1/1N FLARE FROM REGION 8385 (N19W44) OCCURRED AT 12/0528Z. REGION 8383 (S16E27) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 12/0709Z. SEVERAL OTHER SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8385 CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME GROWTH TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383, 8384 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C AND M-CLASS FLARES. THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF REGION 8375 ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING AS IT ROTATES A SECOND DAY BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS REACHED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING 13 AND 14 NOV WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV. A QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITION SHOULD RETURN ON 15 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 13 NOV to 15 NOV
Class M50%40%40%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 NOV 142
  Predicted   13 NOV-15 NOV  140/140/138
  90 Day Mean        12 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 NOV  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 NOV  001/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 NOV-15 NOV  015/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 NOV to 15 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%15%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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