Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. ONE
OPTICALLY CORRELATED M1/1N FLARE FROM REGION 8385 (N19W44) OCCURRED
AT 12/0528Z. REGION 8383 (S16E27) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 12/0709Z.
SEVERAL OTHER SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.
REGION 8385 CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME GROWTH TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383, 8384 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C AND M-CLASS FLARES. THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF REGION
8375 ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING AS IT ROTATES A SECOND DAY BEHIND
THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS REACHED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING 13 AND 14 NOV WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A
PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV. A QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITION SHOULD RETURN ON 15 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 13 NOV to 15 NOV
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 NOV 142 Predicted 13 NOV-15 NOV 140/140/138 90 Day Mean 12 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 NOV 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 NOV 001/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 NOV-15 NOV 015/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 NOV to 15 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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