Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N22W88) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/1544Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8384 (S27E63) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT EXHIBITED MIXED POLARITIES AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BEGINNING AT 09/1754Z. SEVERAL OTHER LARGE MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REGION 8375 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. X-CLASS EVENTS FROM THIS REGION REMAIN POSSIBLE. ON 13 NOV, FLARE FREQUENCY SHOULD DECREASE AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FAR BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES DUE TO ITS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 11-12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 13 NOV IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 11 NOV to 13 NOV
Class M70%30%20%
Class X30%15%10%
Proton30%20%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 NOV 154
  Predicted   11 NOV-13 NOV  145/142/140
  90 Day Mean        10 NOV 133 (ESTIMATED)
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  030/078
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  006/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  008/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 NOV to 13 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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