Viewing archive of Monday, 9 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N21W74) PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 08/2256Z. THIS REGION RETAINED ITS MIXED POLARITIES AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE IN WHITE LIGHT WAS UNCHANGED. NEW REGION 8384 (S27E78) APPEARED AS A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SPOT. A SUSPECTED SPRAY OCCURRED FROM THIS REGION BETWEEN 09/0134-0216Z. THIS EVENT MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A C3 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT AT 09/0153Z. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N24E25 FADED BETWEEN 08/2318-2330Z. SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOHO CORONAGRAPH DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WERE FROM MODERATELY HIGH LATITUDES ON THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LIMBS. THE MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AND ASSOCIATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM NW40-70 BEGINNING AT 09/1915Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR 10-11 NOV. REGION 8375 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS AND ISOLATED LARGER EVENTS. REGION 8384 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/0600-1200Z. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED SEVERE STORMING DURING THAT TIME. SOLAR WIND DATA WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG SOUTHWARD BZ BEGINNING AROUND 09/0330Z, DECREASING VELOCITY, AND DECREASING TOTAL FIELD MAGNITUDE. A FORBUSH DECREASE OF APPROXIMATELY 6 PERCENT WAS OBSERVED NEAR 09/0100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 10 NOV. PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE ON THAT DAY. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 11 NOV AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON 12 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 10 NOV to 12 NOV
Class M 65%60%15%
Class X 30%25%10%
Proton30%25%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 NOV 162
  Predicted    10 NOV-12 NOV  162/156/145
  90 Day Mean        09 NOV 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV  036/068
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  035/072
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  020/025-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 NOV to 12 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 15%05%05%

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