Viewing archive of Friday, 6 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE WITH A 1B/M1 FLARE FROM
REGION 8375 (N18W35) AT 1511UT. THERE WAS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE
ENERGETIC PROTON LEVEL OF GT 10 MEV, BUT DENSITIES DID NOT PASS THE
THRESHOLD OF 10 SFU.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO MINOR STORM. NEAR THE START
OF THE UT DAY A SOLAR WIND STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL
HALO REPORTED ON 2 NOV ARRIVED AT EARTH AND CAUSED AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORM STRENGTH. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NASA GODDARD
REPORTED A FULL HALO CME WHICH OCCURRED AT 05/1945UT. THIS IS THE
FOURTH REPORTED CME IN THREE DAYS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OF THIS PERIOD.
THE REMAINING DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM DUE
TO A REPORTED FULL-HALO CME ON 04/0418UT AND 05/0241.
III. Event Probabilities 07 NOV to 09 NOV
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 NOV 141 Predicted 07 NOV-09 NOV 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 06 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV 018/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV 015/025-040/035-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 NOV to 09 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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