Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS CAUSED BY A
SINGLE M1/2N FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 03/1933UT IN REGION 8375
(N18E07). FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8375
WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WITH A 22 SPOT CAO, BETA-GAMMA GROUP. A
NEW REGION 8378 (N17E76) WAS NUMBERED. IT IS ROTATING ONTO THE EAST
LIMB AND CURRENTLY IS A SINGLE SPOT HAX, BETA GROUP. THE REST OF THE
DISK AND LIMB WAS MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGION 8375 PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON 05 NOVEMBER DUE TO THE M1 EVENT ON
03/1933UT.
III. Event Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 NOV 152 Predicted 04 NOV-06 NOV 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 03 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV 008/008-020/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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