Viewing archive of Monday, 19 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361 (N14W66) GREW SLOWLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, TWO OF WHICH REACHED C-CLASS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7/1N AT 19/1231Z ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8358 (N15W82) STABILIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES BEFORE DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB ON 22 OCTOBER. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED STORM LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 15 OCTOBER. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
III. Event Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
Class M25%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 OCT 118
  Predicted   20 OCT-22 OCT  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        19 OCT 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  035/050
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  015/030-015/020-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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