Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C9/1F FLARE WAS OBSERVED FROM REGION 8358 (N16W55) AT 17/1851UT. REGION 8364 (N18E24), A 4-SPOT BETA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO THE 15 OCT CME.
III. Event Probabilities 18 OCT to 20 OCT
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 OCT 135
  Predicted   18 OCT-20 OCT  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        17 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 OCT  008/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 OCT  011/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 OCT-20 OCT  015/020-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 OCT to 20 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%20%
Minor storm35%35%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm40%40%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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