Viewing archive of Friday, 16 October 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8358 (N15W41) AND 8360 (S18W39) PRODUCED SEVERAL B AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8360 IS STILL UNDERGOING MINOR GROWTH AND NOW COVERS 340 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. A LARGE 27 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N19E10 ERUPTED YESTERDAY MORNING AT APPROXIMATELY 15/1000Z. EIT IMAGERY DETECTED THIS ACTIVE FILAMENT AS IT ERUPTED AND LASCO REPORTED A FULL HALO CME. ALL OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGIONS 8360 AND 8358 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW. IMPACT FROM THE 15 OCT CME IS EXPECTED ON DAY 2 THROUGH DAY 3. EXPECT ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS ON BOTH DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 OCT to 19 OCT
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 OCT 131
  Predicted   17 OCT-19 OCT  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        16 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  005/008-016/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 OCT to 19 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%50%50%
Minor storm01%35%35%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%50%50%
Minor storm05%40%40%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

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