Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. THERE WAS NO REMARKABLE GROWTH OR DECAY OBSERVED IN ANY OF THE PRESENT REGIONS. NEW REGIONS 8358 (N15E02) AND 8359 (N23W47) WERE NUMBERED. BOTH WERE SMALL, SIMPLE BIPOLES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING TREND, GIVEN THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 8340 (N19, L = 012) AND 8344 (S22, L = 007) ON 14 OCTOBER. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 13/0900 - 1200UT WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES AND MINOR STORM LEVELS DETECTED AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 OCT to 16 OCT
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 OCT 118
  Predicted   14 OCT-16 OCT  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        13 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 OCT to 16 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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