Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE FIVE, LOW-LEVEL C CLASS FLARES TODAY, TWO OF WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO REGION 8356 (N21W42). THIS GROUP APPEARED TO BE IN DECAY TODAY. REGION 8355 (S22E10) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK, BUT WAS VERY STABLE. REGION 8350 (N20W53) WAS IN DECAY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AN INCREASE IN BACKGROUND FLUX LEVELS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OF THESE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY IS OLD REGION 8340 (N20, L=013) WHICH PRODUCED 3 M-CLASS FLARES ON ITS PREVIOUS DISK TRANSIT AND IS DUE TO RETURN EARLY ON THE 14TH. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 OCT to 14 OCT
Class M05%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 OCT 119
  Predicted   12 OCT-14 OCT  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        11 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 OCT  011/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 OCT to 14 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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