Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 October 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8350 (N19E55) WAS GENERALLY STABLE. SLIGHT MAGNETIC POLARITY MIXING BECAME EVIDENT DURING THE PERIOD. A MODERATE SIZE FILAMENT LOCATED FROM N51E35-N48E57 FADED BETWEEN 03/0253-0849Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8350 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING WAS OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, THE FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY FELL STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT 650 KM/S TO APPROXIMATELY 500 KM/S. IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON 03 OCT, ACTUALLY ARRIVED ON 02 OCT NEAR 0700Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 OCT to 06 OCT
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 OCT 112
  Predicted   04 OCT-06 OCT  111/110/111
  90 Day Mean        03 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 OCT  027/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 OCT  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 OCT-06 OCT  008/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 OCT to 06 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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