Viewing archive of Friday, 2 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8350 (N20E67) IS A MODERATE SIZE
CLASS E GROUP WITH A BIPOLAR MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. OTHER REGIONS
WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
VERY LOW. REGION 8350 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A
HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. A RAPID
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED, TOTAL FIELD, AND TEMPERATURE OCCURRED AROUND
02/0700Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 30 SEP
CONTINUED TO DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND FELL BELOW 10 PFU AT
02/0830Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT
02/0300Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 03-04 OCT. PERIODS OF MAJOR
STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON 05 OCT WHEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 OCT 113 Predicted 03 OCT-05 OCT 111/110/112 90 Day Mean 02 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT 017/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT 018/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT 020/030-015/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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