Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8340 (N19W54) AND 8346
(S28E01) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL AND MODERATE C-CLASS X-RAY,
SUB-FAINT AND 1F FLARES. A C2.6/SF FLARE FROM 8340 PRODUCED AN
ASSOCIATED TEN FLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ELEVATED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ACTIVE PERIODS AT MID-LATITUDE STATIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 SEP 126 Predicted 28 SEP-30 SEP 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 27 SEP 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 008/010-005/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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