Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW TO LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY AND SUB-FAINT FLARES OCCURRED FROM REGION 8340 (N21W40). A LARGE NUMBER OF FILAMENTS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PERIOD CORRESPONDED TO AN INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND SPEED AND TEMPERATURE AND A DECREASE IN DENSITY (A CORONAL HOLE EFFECT). HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 27 SEP to 29 SEP
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 SEP 136
  Predicted   27 SEP-29 SEP  138/138/140
  90 Day Mean        26 SEP 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP  059/121
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  008/015-005/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 SEP to 29 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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