Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE
REGION 8340 (N20E11) HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT AND HAS SHOWN A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF 8343 (N39E25) WHICH PRODUCED A SINGE OPTICAL
SUB-FLARE. A NEW REGION WAS ADDED: 8344 (S20E22). THIS REGION IS
SHOWING A 5 SPOT BXO-BETA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED ACTIVITY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 SEP 141 Predicted 23 SEP-25 SEP 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 22 SEP 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP 010/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP 015/015-020/020-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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