Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION 8340 (N20E11) HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT AND HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 8343 (N39E25) WHICH PRODUCED A SINGE OPTICAL SUB-FLARE. A NEW REGION WAS ADDED: 8344 (S20E22). THIS REGION IS SHOWING A 5 SPOT BXO-BETA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 SEP 141
  Predicted   23 SEP-25 SEP  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        22 SEP 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  015/015-020/020-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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