Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FIVE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST A C8/SF FROM REGION 8333 (N12W83) AT 13/1825Z. THIS REGION, A 3-SPOT 'DAO' BETA GROUP AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB, WAS ALSO THE SOURCE OF AN EARLIER C1/SF EVENT. REGION 8329 (N14W60) PRODUCED A C3/SF EVENT AT 13/0907Z, AND UNSPOTTED REGION 8326 (N21W53) GENERATED IT'S SECOND C1/SF EVENT SINCE 2030Z YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 SEP 131
  Predicted   14 SEP-16 SEP  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        13 SEP 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  007/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  005/009-005/009-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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