Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FOUR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST AN UNCORRELATED C3 AT 12/0753Z. REGIONS 8331 (N25E02) AND 8333 (N11W71) EACH GENERATED A SINGLE C1/SF EVENT. REGION 8331 CONTINUES AS THE MOST COMPLEX ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, AS A 25-SPOT 'EAI' BETA GROUP. REGION 8333, WHICH WAS THE SOURCE OF YESTERDAY'S M2/1B EVENT, IS CURRENTLY A 5-SPOT 'DAO' BETA. NEW REGION 8335 (S22E68), A SMALL C-TYPE GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MOSTLY QUIET ON DAYS 2 AND 3.
III. Event Probabilities 13 SEP to 15 SEP
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 SEP 135
  Predicted   13 SEP-15 SEP  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        12 SEP   125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP  012/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP  010/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 SEP to 15 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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