Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON TWO SMALL UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS. IN ADDITION, MINOR SUBFLARES WERE REPORTED FROM REGIONS 8328 (S17W08), 8329 (N14W18), AND 8333 (N12W41). WITH TODAYS DEPARTURE OF REGION 8323 (S27W84) AROUND THE WEST LIMB, REGIONS 8329, 11-SPOT 'ESO' BETA, AND 8331 (N26E24), 15-SPOT 'DAO' BETA, ARE THE MOST COMPLEX OF THE SEVEN ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WITH C-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY ONE OF REGIONS 8328, 8329, 8331, AND 8333. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 SEP to 13 SEP
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 SEP 142
  Predicted   11 SEP-13 SEP  140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        10 SEP   124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP  005/009-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 SEP to 13 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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