Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED
AT 09/0458Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TYPE II/IV SWEEP
EVENTS AND A DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 310 SFU AT 2695 MHZ.
ALTHOUGH NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED AT SEC, OBSERVATIONS
MADE THROUGH CLOUDS AT LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY SUGGEST THAT
REGION 8323 (S22W77) WAS THE SOURCE. THIS REGION IS DECAYING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. IN ADDITION TO THE M-CLASS FLARE, SMALL
FLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8328 (S18E08), 8329 (N14W02), AND 8331
(N26E41). NEW REGION 8333 (N12W27) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM A VARIETY OF
ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING 8323, 8326, 8328, 8329, AND 8331. REGION
8323 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE IT ROTATES OUT OF VIEW
AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 SEP 145 Predicted 10 SEP-12 SEP 140/130/125 90 Day Mean 09 SEP 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP 008/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP 010/009-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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