Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 09/0458Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TYPE II/IV SWEEP EVENTS AND A DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 310 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. ALTHOUGH NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED AT SEC, OBSERVATIONS MADE THROUGH CLOUDS AT LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY SUGGEST THAT REGION 8323 (S22W77) WAS THE SOURCE. THIS REGION IS DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. IN ADDITION TO THE M-CLASS FLARE, SMALL FLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8328 (S18E08), 8329 (N14W02), AND 8331 (N26E41). NEW REGION 8333 (N12W27) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM A VARIETY OF ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING 8323, 8326, 8328, 8329, AND 8331. REGION 8323 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE IT ROTATES OUT OF VIEW AROUND THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
Class M40%30%20%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 SEP 145
  Predicted   10 SEP-12 SEP  140/130/125
  90 Day Mean        09 SEP 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP  008/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP  010/009-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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