Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 September 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL FLARES CONTINUED IN REGIONS 8323 (S22W64) AND 8326 (N22 E12). BOTH REGIONS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY. REGION 8329 (N14E11) IS GROWING. NEW REGION 8332 (S27E12) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, PRIMARILY IN REGIONS 8323 AND 8326. AN ISOLATED ENERGETIC FLARE MAY OCCUR IN 8323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM 08/00-06Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
Class M40%40%30%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 SEP 154
  Predicted   09 SEP-11 SEP  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        08 SEP 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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