Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 September 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8323 (S22W23) REMAINED LARGE WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND DISPLAYED NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8326 (N21E50) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT WAS GENERALLY STABLE. NEW REGION 8329 (N15E52) WAS NUMBERED TODAY; IT WAS FORMERLY CONSIDERED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF REGION 8326.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8323 MAY PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 06 SEP to 08 SEP
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 SEP 154
  Predicted   06 SEP-08 SEP  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        05 SEP 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 SEP to 08 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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