Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8319
(N19W81) PRODUCED AN M2/SF FLARE AT 02/1707UT. THERE WERE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED IN THIS STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE SPOT GROUP.
REGION 8323 (S22E16) REMAINED THE FOCUS OF INTEREST, GIVEN ITS LARGE
AREA (1430 MILLIONS) AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ASIDE FROM A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREA, NO
REMARKABLE CHANGES WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS REGION. NEW REGION 8325
(S28E47), A SMALL A-TYPE GROUP, WAS ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8323 AND 8319.
THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DURING
THE FIRST TWO DAYS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FINAL DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
| Class M | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 SEP 163 Predicted 03 SEP-05 SEP 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 02 SEP 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP 013/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP 012/012-015/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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