Viewing archive of Friday, 28 August 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8307 (N32W39) CONTINUES TO SIMPLIFY. IT APPEARS TO STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED CLASS M EVENT. REGION 8319 (N19W15) CONTINUES TO GROW AND SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ACTIVE ARCH-FILAMENT SYSTEM EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF THE REGION. YOHKOH REPORTS THAT A POTENTIAL-LIKE LOOP STRUCTURE IS WELL DEVELOPED. SMALL GROUPS OF NEW SPOTS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ACROSS THE FACE OF THE VISIBLE DISK. OLD REGION 8293 APPEARS TO BE RETURNING AT S21 ON THE EAST LIMB. FILAMENTS HAVE DISAPPEARED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA OF THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. FREQUENT FLARES CLASS C TO CLASS M ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8319 AND AN ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE MAY OCCUR IN REGION 8307. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM HAS DECLINED RAPIDLY AND K-INDICES OF 3 AND 4 ARE PREVALENT AT MID-LATITUDE. THE REAL TIME SOLAR WIND DATA FROM ACE SHOWS A REGULAR WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN THE BZ COMPONENT WITH A PERIOD OF ABOUT 30 MINUTES. THE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN QUIRE REGULAR FOR THE LAST 20 HOURS. THE ENERGETIC PARTICLES WITH ENERGY GREATER THAN 10 MEV HAVE DECLINED AND ARE HOVERING AT ABOUT 10 PFU. AN END TO THE EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE PRONOUNCED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEUTRON MONITOR FLUXES HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS. GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GOES ARE NOW EXCEEDING A FLUX OF 1.0 E4, A LEVEL 10 TIMES THE ALERT THRESHOLDS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE DISAPPEARANCE OF FILAMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS THAT COULD BRING ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO EARTH ON AUGUST 30 AND 31.
III. Event Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 AUG 139
  Predicted    29 AUG-31 AUG  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        28 AUG 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  077/112
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  022/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 01%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%50%25%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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