Viewing archive of Monday, 24 August 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8307 (N31E10) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 24/1525Z. REGION 8307 CONTINUED ITS DECLINE IN WHITE LIGHT AREA AND BECAME MORE BIPOLAR MAGNETICALLY. PENUMBRAL DECAY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION CAUSED THE DELTA CONFIGURATION TO FADE. REGION 8309 (N16W38) GREW SLIGHTLY AND EXHIBITED MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8307 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING AS THE REGION DECAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED TO APPROXIMATELY 430 KM/S FROM A HIGH OF NEAR 600 KM/S ON 23 AUG. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED TO DECAY SLOWLY. FLUXES WERE NEAR 1 PFU.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 AUG IN RESPONSE TO AN M9 FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME EARLY ON 22 AUG. DURING THE DISTURBANCE, MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED ON 27 AUG AS THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. THE PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE.
III. Event Probabilities 25 AUG to 27 AUG
Class M 35%30%25%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 AUG 121
  Predicted    25 AUG-27 AUG  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        24 AUG 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 AUG  014/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG  010/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG  025/027-025/025-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 AUG to 27 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 30%30%15%
Major-severe storm 15%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 30%30%15%
Major-severe storm 20%20%05%

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