Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 August 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8307 (N31E35) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M9/2B AT 22/0009Z WITH A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP EVENT AND MODERATE RADIO BURSTS IN THE GHZ RANGE. THIS REGION EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WHERE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IS FORMING. REGION 8307 PRODUCED SEVERAL OTHER SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8307 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MID-LEVEL M-CLASS EVENTS AND OCCASIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE OCCURRED BETWEEN 22/0600Z TO APPROXIMATELY 22/1300Z. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SENSORS RECORDED PERIODS OF SEVERE STORMING. THE FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOLAR WIND DATA DURING THE DISTURBANCE SHOWED A LOW SPEED, MODERATELY HIGH DENSITY FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. THESE SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CHARACTERISTIC OF CORONAL HOLE RELATED STREAMS. HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS INCREASING AND DENSITY DECREASING. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE BACKGROUND BUT BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD SINCE EARLY ON 20 AUG.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT ESPECIALLY ON 25 AUG WHEN A SMALL DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE M9 EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EARTH. AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD REGION 8307 PRODUCE ANOTHER LARGE EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 23 AUG to 25 AUG
Class M80%80%80%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton20%25%30%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 AUG 133
  Predicted   23 AUG-25 AUG  136/139/142
  90 Day Mean        22 AUG 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG  015/020-015/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 AUG to 25 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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