Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. AN X4.9 OCCURRED AT 18/2210 AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8307 (N32E72). AN M2.3 AT 19/1222 AND M3.0 AT 19/1404 WERE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE X- AND M-CLASS FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS REGION 8307 MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM AT HIGHER LATITUDES. CORONAL HOLES ARE MOVING INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS REGION 8307 (N32E72) ROTATES TO THE CENTER OF THE DISK, ERUPTIONS OF CMES ARE GOING TO BE MORE GEOEFFECTIVE AS WELL. TYPE II (IMPORTANCE 3) AND IV (IMPORTANCE 2) BURSTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X4.9 AND M3.0 X-RAY FLARES. ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED FROM X4.9 EVENT IS 1900 KM/S, AND 1000 KM/S +/- 200 KM/S FOR THE M3.0 FLARE.
III. Event Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton10%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 AUG 135
  Predicted   20 AUG-22 AUG  138/140/144
  90 Day Mean        19 AUG 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG  015/015-025/020-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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