Viewing archive of Monday, 17 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. REGIONS 8280 AND 8282 ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPTICAL AND X-RAY SENSORS INDICATE THAT 8282 IS LARGE AND ENERGETIC. REGION 8280 ALSO HAS A SIGNIFICANT X-RAY SIGNATURE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR TOMORROW. DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AS A CORONAL HOLE ROTATES INTO A GEO-EFFECTIVE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 18 AUG to 20 AUG
Class M50%50%50%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 AUG 136
  Predicted   18 AUG-20 AUG  138/142/137
  90 Day Mean        17 AUG 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG  001/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG  005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 AUG to 20 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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