Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG DURATION M3 X-RAY FLARE AT 16/1821Z. THERE WERE CORRESPONDING TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS FOR THIS EVENT BUT NO OPTICAL FLARES. THE REST OF THE DAY'S ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MAIN ACTIVE REGION WAS 8299 (N17W40) WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING NEARLY CONTINUOUS PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SOME OPTICAL SUBFLARES. THE OTHER ACTIVITY NOTED WAS SOME SURGING ON THE WEST LIMB AS REGION 8300 (S27W96) ROTATED OVER. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY HIGH, IN THE RANGE OF B6 TO B9 FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
Class M30%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 AUG 140
  Predicted   17 AUG-19 AUG  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        16 AUG 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  010/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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