Viewing archive of Monday, 10 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8293 (S23W30) AND 8299 (N15E40) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8293 DECAYED IN SUNSPOT NUMBER BUT MAINTAINS MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8299 SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE. BOTH REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FREQUENT SURGING AND PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. REGIONS 8297 (N32E22) AND 8298 (N19W24) PRODUCED SMALL SUBFLARES LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEITHER REGION EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING FREQUENT C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 12 AUG IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 08 AUG. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13 AUG.
III. Event Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
Class M40%40%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 AUG 149
  Predicted   11 AUG-13 AUG  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        10 AUG 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG  012/015-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%20%
Minor storm10%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%50%25%
Minor storm15%35%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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