Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 August 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 AUG 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8299 (N15E52)
PRODUCED A M1/1B AT 09/0847Z AND A M3/2B AT 09/1718Z. THIS REGION
ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE
ACCURATE WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC ANALYSIS DIFFICULT. IT'S
IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME, BUT MIXED
POLARITIES APPEAR MORE OBVIOUS IN THIS C-CLASS 14 SPOT GROUP. REGION
8293 (S23W18) REMAINS MODERATELY COMPLEX AND PRODUCED A C3/SF AT
08/1626Z. SOME GROWTH WAS EVIDENT IN WHITE LIGHT AS THIS SPOT GROUP,
NUMBERING AS HIGH AS 77 SPOTS, NOW COVERS AN AREA OF 580 MILLIONTHS.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY, 8300 (S29W01) AND 8301 (S20E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON 12 AUG IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 8 AUG.
III. Event Probabilities 10 AUG to 12 AUG
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 AUG 154 Predicted 10 AUG-12 AUG 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 09 AUG 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG 007/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG 010/010-012/015-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 AUG to 12 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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