Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 August 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 AUG 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON A SINGLE UNCORRELATED
C3 FLARE AT 01/1820Z. IN ADDITION, A B7/1F EVENT WITH STRONG
ASSOCIATED TYPE II/IV RADIO SWEEPS WAS OBSERVED FROM REGION 8288
(S27E25) AT 01/0630Z. REGION 8282 (N30W60) HAS DECREASED IN SIZE AND
SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY A 4-SPOT 'CA0' BETA
GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8282,
8283 (N27E04), AND 8288.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING RECORDED IN BOULDER DURING
THE INTERVAL 01/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ON
DAYS TWO AND THREE ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 02 AUG to 04 AUG
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 AUG 112 Predicted 02 AUG-04 AUG 110/108/108 90 Day Mean 01 AUG 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL 021/033 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 AUG to 04 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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