Viewing archive of Friday, 24 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8280 (S23E40) AT 24/0338UT. REGION 8280 REMAINED THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AND RETAINED A SIMPLE BIPOLAR MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8282 (N32E43) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER REGION 8280 OR 8282. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACE NEAR-REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED THE ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO A HIGH SPEED STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 23/2240UT, THEN VARIED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE CORONAL HOLE-RELATED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS TOMORROW. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 JUL to 27 JUL
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 JUL 125
  Predicted    25 JUL-27 JUL  128/130/132
  90 Day Mean        24 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  025/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  022/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  012/015-010/010-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 JUL to 27 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS. GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SPACECRAFT FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BECOME THE SECONDARY SPACECRAFT.

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