Viewing archive of Monday, 20 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. MOST OF TODAY'S
OCCASIONAL B-CLASS LEVEL SUBFLARES WERE FROM REGION 8270 (S20W64).
THIS GROUP SHOWED GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. TWO NEW REGIONS
EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY: 8277 AT S13W26 AND 8278 AT S28E52.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED 1000 PFU DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 JUL to 23 JUL
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 JUL 112 Predicted 21 JUL-23 JUL 115/115/112 90 Day Mean 20 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUL 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL 005/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 JUL to 23 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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